MODEL SCENARIO CONFIGURATIONS

The flood risks for the County were assessed to satisfy both the requirements of the Resilient Florida Grant Program* and the County specific resilience assessment requirements.

*In compliance with the Statewide Flooding and Sea Level Rise Resilience Plan (Chapter 2021-28, Section 380.093, Florida Statutes)

Two flood risk scenarios were developed, the Vulnerability Assessment (VA) and the Resilience Plan (RP) scenarios.

Resilience Plan (RP) Scenarios

The County Resilience Plan addresses 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year rainfall events under king tide conditions and saturated system for both 2- and 3.3-foot sea level rise. The Plan also includes the compound effect of the 20- and 100-year storm surge combined with the storm events, and the addition of a rainfall change factor to include the effect of climate change on rainfall intensities.

18 Total Scenarios

See the Plan for a full breakdown of the combination of Resilience Plan scenarios considered.

RP Scenario List

Criteria

Tidal Condition

King Tide

20-yr Storm Surge

100-yr Storm Surge

Groundwater Conceptualization

Variable GW

Saturated System

Sea Level Rise Scenario

2.0 ft

3.3 ft

Rainfall

10-Yr

25-Yr

100-Yr

Risk Assessment

The MIKE SHE / MIKE HYDRO suite was utilized to assess the flood risks Countywide.

MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO is widely used by hydrologists, water resources engineers, and environmental scientists around the world for research, planning, and management of water resources in the face of climate change, urbanization, and increasing water demand. Its comprehensive approach to modeling the hydrologic cycle and water use makes it an indispensable tool in the field of hydrology and water resources management.

A visual representation of model characteristics. MIKE HYDRO: Lakes, canals, ponds, oceans. MIKE SHE: atmosphere, overland, underground.

Vulnerability Assessment (VA) Scenarios

Criteria

Tidal Condition

Normal High Tide

Storm Surge (100-year)

Planning Horizon

2021 - Current

2070

2040

Sea Level Rise Projection

2017 NOAA Intermediate Low

2017 NOAA Intermediate High

Rainfall

10-Yr

25-Yr

100-Yr

The Resilient Florida Grant Program specifies that a vulnerability analysis using specific scenarios and date projections must be completed. It specifies use of the 2017 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) intermediate-low and intermediate-high sea level rise scenarios and two planning horizons that include 2040 and 2070, to simulate compound flooding or the combination of tidal, storm surge, and rainfall-induced flooding.

30 Total Scenarios

See the Resilient Broward Plan for a full breakdown of the combination of VA scenarios considered.

VA Scenario List

Heat Risk Analysis

The County’s socially vulnerable populations are within or near areas that experience high land surface temperatures, making them more susceptible to heat-related deaths and illnesses.

Identifying those Most at Risk

The County’s socially vulnerable populations are within or near areas that experience high land surface temperatures, making them more susceptible to heat-related deaths and illnesses. Highlighted below are the vulnerable populations and depicted are the geographical distribution of several indicators: Housing Burdened, Below 150% Poverty, Minority, Unemployed, Elderly, Disabled, and Total Population.

This information is used to calculate the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). The SVI helps identify communities that may need support during disasters or emergencies. The SVI is a percentile-based index that uses 15 U.S. Census Bureau data points to rank census tracts on 14 social factors. In all maps, the darker the color of the polygons shown, the higher the percentage. Therefore, the areas shown in dark blue in the Total SVI indicator correspond to the most vulnerable popuations based on the 14 social factors.

These areas were used to prioritize the adaptations.

Maps of percent of population in areas of Broward County vulnerable, by at risk categories. Key takeaways include the at risk nautre of housing burdened, minority, and elderly constituents in Broward County.

Green infrastructure is known to reduce the effects of heat islands by maximizing pervious surfaces within urban settings. Additionally, green infrastructure often offers mitigation strategies for flooding and rainwater storage while providing sustainable landscaping. Green infrastructure mitigation strategies for heat reduction may include:

Sustainable landscaping and flood-resistant materials
Pocket wetlands
Rainwater harvesting
Bioswales and bioretention
Permeable pavement or pavers
Enhanced stormwater ponds

Vulnerable areas of Broward County, showing how key areas were identified based on average land surface temperature in 2022 and the % of population below 1.5 times the poverty estimate.